British Apples & Pears Limited (BAPL) has commissioned independent analysis to assess the likely cost of production impact of the current conflict in Iran on British apple and pear growers.
While the full picture is still emerging, the latest update from Andersons Midlands indicates that unanticipated inflation since 1 March 2026 has already added a further £31.30 per tonne to the cost of growing UK Gala apples this year. Combined with the original 2026 forecast increase of £32 per tonne, this means total Gala apple production costs are now expected to rise by £63.30 per tonne in 2026, equivalent to 6.3 pence per kilo or a 4.5% increase overall. The main areas of inflation are fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and transport.
The findings come against the backdrop of the significant inflationary pressures that followed the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
During that period, British apple growers saw costs of production rise by around 30% in just two years, while supermarket returns increased by only 8%. Labour, energy, fertiliser, packaging and storage costs all increased sharply, leaving many growers facing a significant squeeze on profitability.
The concern now is that a further period of inflation linked to the conflict in the Middle East could create a similar situation, where grower returns once again fail to keep pace with rising production costs.
BAPL believes the longer-term consequences of this are already visible. Its most recent Orchard and Storage Census found that planned orchard planting over the next three years is around 32% below the average planting rate of the previous five years. Growers need to plant around 369 hectares of new orchard each year simply to maintain current orchard area, yet the most recent intentions suggest only around 145 hectares per year will be planted.
BAPL says reduced profitability and lower levels of reinvestment have already contributed to slower orchard renewal, and there is concern that repeated cost shocks could further reduce growers’ ability to invest in new orchards, storage, technology and future production.
Without sufficient reinvestment, there is a risk that the UK’s apple and pear sector will struggle to maintain current production levels in the years ahead.
Ali Capper, Executive Chair of British Apples & Pears Limited, said: “After one of the best harvest years we’ve ever had in 2025, British apple and pear growers are once again facing significant cost inflation caused by global events entirely beyond their control.
“The latest increases in fertiliser, fuel, electricity, packaging and transport costs come on top of several years of already rising production costs and squeezed margins.
“We have already seen the consequences when grower returns fail to keep pace with inflation. Profitability is reduced, businesses come under pressure, orchard renewal slows and investment decisions are delayed.
“The industry has shown that it can weather periods of major global disruption, but repeated cost shocks cannot continue to be absorbed solely by growers.
“There is a real opportunity for retailers and growers to work together to ensure these additional costs are recognised fairly across the supply chain. Constructive engagement will be essential if British apple and pear production is to remain viable and continue investing for the future.
“This matters not just for growers, but for retailers too. Maintaining a strong British apple and pear sector supports long-term food security, delivers the quality and flavour consumers expect from fruit grown in our climate, and helps reduce the carbon footprint of supply.”
BAPL is urging retailers to follow the Groceries Code Adjudicator’s seven golden rules on cost price increases, including clear communication, fair and timely decision-making, recognition of the impact on smaller suppliers and avoiding delisting threats during negotiations. BAPL believes these principles will be essential in helping growers and retailers manage the latest period of inflation collaboratively and fairly across the supply chain.